Fordham Law professor Howard Erichson ( has posted a new working paper that addresses the thorny issue of settlements in mass tort cases.  Titled Uncertainty and the Advantage of Collective Settlement, (forthcoming, DePaul Law Review) it posits six different types of uncertainty in mass torts, each of which he links to well-known cases. According to Erichson, there is uncertainty about

1. General causation (eg, Bendectin litigation)
2. Liability (tobacco/Agent Orange)
3. Exposure (ephedra/Wolburn leukemia clusters)
4. Product ID (asbestos)
5. Individual medical causation (Vioxx)
6. Damages

Erichson argues that, for cases 4, 5, and 6, aggregate settlement is a good idea, while litigation is probably better for cases 1, 2, and 3. What’s his definition of "good idea"? He makes a few casual references to "justice," but what he really seems to mean is a settlement where the defendant pays compensation in proportion to the harm it (likely) caused. As Erichson puts it:

When parties face uncertainty about individual causation, a collective settlement may offer an excellent opportunity for an outcome that reflects proportional liability even in the absence of a proportional liability rule of tort law. However, collective settlement offers this advantage only when the uncertainty relates to the likelihood that each plaintiff will prevail on causation. If causation is uncertain but it is clear that each plaintiff can or cannot meet the preponderance standard, then collective settlement would reflect the same overliability or underliability that would result from individual or collective adjudication.

When liability and causation are clear but the amount of damages is uncertain, collective resolution – whether by adjudication or settlement – offers the benefit of reducing variability and possibly providing greater accuracy. Particularly with regard to punitive damages, collective resolution can serve the important function of reducing variable results among similarly situated claimants.

Erichson likes typologies, and views himself as providing starting points for further analysis by other researchers. So the fair question to ask is: is this a useful breakdown of types of uncertainty? And the answer is: somewhat.

One problem is that it seems Erichson stretched a little to get six categories. In particular, "individual medical causation" feels like a fudge. There’s little to distinguish it from liability, except that–according to Erichson–in one case, the legal question is uncertain, and in the other, the factual question is. In either case, however, it would require individual trials to determine whether the substance caused the illness, and whether that meant that the manufacturer was liable. (For example, in some mass tobacco cases, it appears one of the larger problems with aggregate treatment was how to address the difficult issue of determining individual medical causation.)

And the second problem is that Erichson really doesn’t consider the means by the settlement will be achieved, and the method of settlement can have a tremendous effect on its "justice."  There’s no question that the parties would have difficulty pushing through a mass-tort settlement as a classwide settlement.   And while it is possible to settle a mass tort without invoking Rule 23, those settlements bring their own problems. Among other issues, settling many different cases on the same "take it or leave it" terms seems unfair, but engaging in a lengthy plaintiff-by-plaintiff claims may not save much time or money over the original trials. As Judge Eldon Fallon observed about the Vioxx settlement:

The potential harm to the public’s perception of the judicial process is especially acute in the instant case because of the large number of claimants participating in the settlement. The approximately 50,000 plaintiffs and the $4.85 billion settlement fund have captured the public’s attention, resulting in a heightened degree of public scrutiny on the settlement proceedings and the judicial process in general. Disproportionate results and inconsistent standards threaten to damage the public’s faith in the judicial resolution of mass tort litigation by creating an impression of inherent unfairness.

That, right there, is the rub.  To make the settlement seem fair, it has to be fair, treating like cases similarly, and different cases differently.  Judge Fallon’s solution was to assert the power to review individual plaintiffs’ lawyers contingent-fee contracts (which would check the lawyers’ understandable impulse to settle as many cases as possible on whatever terms).  That is an unwieldy solution, but better than nothing. How to resolve mass-tort claims like this–where individual causation is uncertain–remains a very difficult question. Erichson’s proposed typology is useful on the easier questions, but unfortunately glosses over one of the most challenging issues in aggregate litigation today.